Estimates for the total number of IDPs for all of Sudan (as of 2013)
The figure includes the following estimates:
· 2 million IDPs in Darfur, of which an estimated 1.4 in protracted displacement in camps (. NB: The figure for Darfur is currently under review by OCHA ) (source OCHA)
· 800,000 IDPs and conflict-affected people in SPLM-N areas of South Kordofan and Blue Nile (source OCHA)
· 90,000 new IDPs in North and South Kordofan (source OCHA)
Data collection and availability
The above figures provide a sense of the scale of displacement in some areas of Sudan, such as Darfur, and to lesser extent South Kordofan and Blue Nile. They are not, however, by any means comprehensive. The collection of good quality data on internal displacement is particularly challenging in Sudan, given the lack of access to affected areas and the piecemeal and fragmented nature of any data that does exist.
Access restrictions mean figures tend to be provided by different entities in different areas, which makes comparison difficult because methodologies are not necessarily the same. They also make verification extremely difficult, which is particularly relevant as displacement figures are highly politicised. In South Kordofan and Blue Nile, for example, the figures published by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are provided by the government’s Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) in state-controlled areas, and by the Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Agency, SPLM-N’s humanitarian wing, in areas controlled by the rebels. There are no means of verifying them independently.
There is little or no data on IDPs living in towns and cities, and this constitutes a further obstacle in providing a comprehensive view of displacement in the country as a whole. It is thought, however, that very large numbers of IDPs have fled to urban areas, contributing to a general trend towards increasing urbanisation (Young and Jacobsen, January 2013; SR on IDPs, May 2013). Nor is there any extensive data on eastern Sudan or other areas where ethnic tensions exist and displacement could be significant. Figures for new arrivals in camps are not necessarily comprehensive, as they are often based on the number of people registered for food aid or other assistance.
The lack of good quality data makes it difficult to make an accurate assessment of IDPs’ needs and the delivery of assistance. The absence of disaggregated data, including by gender and age, makes protection and vulnerability analysis within these groups all but impossible. There is no data with which to evaluate IDPs’ progress towards achieving durable solutions, with the exception of figures on verified returns. There is no information, for example, on failed returns or renewed displacement.
Data on displacement caused by natural disasters and development is no better, and as such there is very little information on the scope of, or response to, either phenomenon. Based on the fact that more than 14,000 homes were destroyed by floods in 2012, mainly in Kassala, South Darfur, Gedaref and Sennar, it is estimated that around 84,000 people were displaced during the year (OCHA, September 2012; IDMC, May 2013). Food insecurity and seasonal drought are also thought to contribute to population movements, but here again no data is available.
Previous Estimates for the total number of IDPs for all of Sudan (as of January 2011)
The figures presented here give an overview of the total number of IDPs in all of Sudan as of January 2011. See also the separate entries for Southern Sudan, the Three Areas, Eastern Sudan, Darfur and Khartoum respectively. Note that the max figure for Darfur has not been used by the UN agencies in 2010 and that the max cumulative figure is likely around 5 million.
The 2010 Work Plan for Sudan, the Humanitarian Action in Southern Sudan Report (6-20 November 2009), the Humanitarian Update Southern Sudan (Issue No. 1 of 2010), the UNHCR Appeal 2010-2011, and the IOM and SSRRC Village Assessment Southern Kordofan, the OCHA Humanitarian Update 3rd Quarter (October 2010), OCHA Cumulative figures of new conflict related displacement - Status 30/11/2010 (see map in the maps section), the 2011 Work Plan for Sudan (30 November 2010) give the following IDP figures for various parts of the country:
|2010 Work Plan for Sudan|
(Annex I, pp.108-158; the figures for the 10 Southern States are estimates for the period January - September 2009.)
|Humanitarian Action in Southern Sudan Report, 6-20 November 2009|
(The figures reflect the situation as of 24 November 2009.)
|Humanitarian Update Southern Sudan|
(17 February 2010, situation as at year end 2009; see also the OCHA map dated 31 Dec 2009.)
|UNHCR Global Appeal 2010-2011|
(p.52; situation as of January 2010.)
|IOM and SSRRC Village Assessment Southern Kordodan |
(p.4; situation as of June 2009.)
Humanitarian Update 3rd Quarter (October 2010)
|OCHA Cumulative figures of new conflict related displacement - Status 30/11/2010 (see map in the maps section)||2011 Work Plan for Sudan|
(30 November 2010)
|Southern Darfur|| 1,410,704|
|Total Darfur||2,666,115||1,9 (2,7) million|
|Northern Bahr el Ghazal||700||0||0||5,784|
|Western Bahr el Ghazal||56,233||812||812||9,110|
| Total Southern Sudan ||390,133 ||359,279||391,379||221,073||212,000|
|Southern Kordofan (incl. Abyei)|| n/a||60,261|
|Blue Nile|| n/a|
|Total Transitional States: || n/a||60,261||80,000|
|Khartoum||n/a||1.7 million||1,5 million|
|Total Northern States:||n/a||1.7 million|
|Total Eastern States:||n/a|
The IDP figures for Darfur of 1,9 (2,7) million include people who were displaced from 2003 up to 2010. As of November 2010, an estimated 268,000 people had been newly displaced in 2010 (2011 Work Plan, 30 November 2010, pp.6, 12).
Figures for Khartoum include people who were displaced mostly from Souhern Sudan from 1983 on but who continued to be displaced in 2010.
In contrast, the figures for the ten states in Southern Sudan are for people who were newly displaced in 2010, and do not include people who were displaced before 2010 but who had not yet been able to return to their homes. (For example, in 2009 390,000 people were estimated to have been newly displaced in Southern Sudan; it is unclear how many of the 390,000 people had been able to return to their homes by the end of 2009.)
Combining these figures produces the following estimate for the total number of IDPs in all of Sudan:
Darfur: 1,9 (2.7) million (from 2003 to 2009) and 268,000 newly displaced in 2010
Khartoum: 1,5 - 1.7 million plus unknown number in other states of North
Southern: 221,000 newly displaced in 2010 plus unknown number of those still displaced from previous years
Transitional areas: 80,000
Eastern States: 68,000(Kassala); (420,000 in Eastern States as of December 2008)
Total: Between 4,5 and 5,2 IDPs, plus unknown numbers of IDPs in the eastern states, the northern states other than the Greater Khartoum area, and Blue Nile state. (No UN agency has used 2,7 million figure for Darfur in 2010. The max number is therefore likely around 5 million.)
Note that some figures have not been updated for several years. There is no updated figure for Eastern States apart for Kassala. Note that in 2010 OCHA and UNHCR have used 1,9 million IDPs for Darfur and not 2,7 million as in 2009.
Note that UNHCR's Global Appeal 2011 uses a lower figure of 4.3 million for all of Sudan as of December 2010:
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