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Myanmar
Thailand Burma Border Consortium estimates at least 500,000 IDPs in eastern Myanmar as of October 2006
- 500,000 estimated in displaced in eastern Burma as of October 2006- a conservative estimate as many areas have not been surveyed due to lack of access
- Between October 2005- October 2006, 82,000 people were forced to leave their homes as a result of, or in order to avoid, the effects of armed conflict and human rights abuses
- 3,077 villages in the surveyed area have been documented as forcibly displaced since 1996 - only 150 of them have been repopulated
TBBC, October 2006 pp. 20, 22:
"Field surveys conducted by indigenous humanitarian and human rights groups and collated by TBBC have previously indicated that more than 2,800 villages were destroyed, forcibly relocated or otherwise abandoned in eastern Burma between 1996 and 2005. TBBC, 2005, “Internal Displacement and Protection in Eastern Burma”, www.tbbc.org Based on the refugee exodus into camps and migrant communities in Thailand and estimations of the internally displaced population, over a million people are understood to have been forcibly displaced from their homes in eastern Burma during that period.
This survey estimates that during the past year alone, 82,000 people were forced to leave their homes as a result of, or in order to avoid, the effects of armed conflict and human rights abuses. This includes people from at least 232 villages that have been documented as having been completely displaced in the past 12 months. While the distribution of forced migration was widespread, the most significant concentration was in four townships of northern Karen State and eastern Pegu Division where counter-insurgency operations displaced over 27,000 civilians. The overall rate of displacement in eastern Burma remains critical and is consistent with previous field surveys which have indicated that on average over 81,000 civilians have been forced to leave their homes each year since 2002.
The cumulative impact of SPDC’s forced relocation campaigns between 1996 and 2002 reflects the extent of the Burma Army’s expanded presence. This period followed the fall of KNU’s headquarters, Khun Sa’s surrender of the Mong Tai Army and ceasefire agreements in Mon and Karenni states. The Burma Army substantially expanded its control over contested areas in the late 1990’s by establishing new bases in strategic locations and forcing rural villages to relocate into towns or consolidated villages. By 2002 few rural villages had not already been subjected to forced relocation orders, although in many cases civilians had resisted these attempts to subjugate customary land ownership. The main form of civil disobedience against the imposition of forced eviction and relocation has been to hide in surrounding fields and forests as close as possible to former villages and ancestral lands.
While 3,077 villages have been documented as forcibly displaced since 1996, some of these villages have been at least partly repopulated. This survey has identified 155 locations where civilians have attempted to re-establish a village during the past year. The vast majority of these attempts have been in Shan state where villagers have quietly been allowed to leave relocation sites in some areas. However, the sustainability of such return and resettlement is restricted not only by livelihood constraints but also by the lack of official authorisation. Indeed, documented attempts to re-establish over 100 villages during 2003 and 2004 have already been thwarted by harassment leading to further rounds of forced displacement.
[...] Internally displaced Population Estimates in 2006
The total number of internally displaced persons who have been forced or obliged to leave their homes and have not been able to return or resettle and reintegrate into society as of October 2006 is estimated to be at least 500,000 people. The population is comprised of 287,000 people currently in the temporary settlements of ceasefire areas administered by ethnic nationalities, while 95,000 civilians are estimated to be hiding from the SPDC in areas most affected by military skirmishes and approximately 118,000 villagers have followed SPDC eviction orders and moved into designated relocation sites.
Overall, this represents a decrease of approximately 40,000 internally displaced persons since October 2005. This reflects a substantial decrease in the population estimates for ceasefire areas. Population movements have been recorded out of areas administered by the United Wa State Army (UWSA) due to lack of livelihood opportunities. Estimates in other ceasefire areas of Shan and Karenni states have also decreased, reflecting how the areas administered by non state actors have effectively been reduced by the expansion of SPDC control. While many of these villagers may remain internally displaced, it has not been possible to track their current status. Conversely, estimates for relocation sites have increased significantly, partly as a result of a broader survey reach in Tenasserim Division and partly due to new incidents of forced relocation in Shan State. Population estimates for hiding sites increased slightly overall, due to a major Burmese Army counter-insurgency operation which targeted civilians in northern Karen state."
2005 figures from TBBC:
TBBC, October 2005 pp. 22, 24:
"The total number of internally displaced persons who have been forced or obliged to leave their homes and have not been able to return or resettle and reintegrate into society as of September 2005 is estimated to be at least 540,000 people. The population is comprised of 340,000 people currently in the temporary settlements of ceasefire areas administered by ethnic nationalities, while 92,000 civilians are estimated to be hiding from the SPDC in areas most affected by military skirmishes and approximately 108,000 villagers have followed SPDC eviction orders and moved into designated relocation sites.
[...]
between May 2004 and May 2005, a further 87,000 peoplewere forced or obliged to leave their homes by the effects of war or human rights abuses. Southern Shan State recorded the most substantial increase in displacement during the past year, which is consistent with increased political harassment and militarisation. Border-wide, a further 68 villages were destroyed, relocated or otherwise abandoned during this twelve month period, including a number which had recently been established by displaced persons without official permission. These figures suggest there has been a relatively steady rate of around 80,000 civilians per year having been displaced by war or human rights abuses over the past three years in eastern Burma.
[...]
As hinted above, these population figures are considered conservative due to constraints in the methodology. While estimates have been derived from the rural areas of 37 townships most affected by internal displacement, it has not been possible to include approximations from urban areas and from other townships. Similarly, there remain difficulties distinguishing between formerly displaced persons who have successfully returned or resettled into mixed administration areas compared to those who still dare not expose themselves if SPDC patrols approach. This survey has generally discounted such populations in mixed administration areas, as it was not possible to verify how many have reintegrated into society and how many remain in a state of internal displacement."
Comments on the TBBC figures:
RI, June 2006:
The most recent TBBC survey shows that as of September 2005 the total number of internally displaced people in eastern Burma who have been forced or obliged to leave their homes over the past decade and have not been able to return or resettle and reintegrate into society is at least 540,000, a reduction from the number estimated in the initial survey of 2002.
[…]
A 2005 report by Human rights Watch puts the estimates of IDPS even higher. According to this report, as of late 2004, as many as 650,000 people were internally displaced in eastern Burma.
[...]
Staff of some international agencies based in Burma dispute the figure of more than half a million IDPS, believing the number to be significantly lower. They maintain that the data are skewed because they are collected by ethnic groups themselves and claim that their local staff, who are able to access sensitive areas, have not found relocation sites identified by Thailand-based agencies. Some expatriate humanitarian staff in Burma argue that the Thailand-based agencies magnify the numbers of IDPS in order to secure funding from donors for cross-border activities.
Almost all of the agencies and people disputing the IDP estimates by Thailand based agencies have themselves not been able to access the conflict and sensitive areas in eastern Burma, where IDPS are living in exceptionally vulnerable conditions. They therefore lack a firm basis for disputing the figures. As for the accusation that the Thailand- based NGOs exaggerate the numbers with an agenda of increasing their funding, their studies suggest that the majority of the displaced live in government or ceasefire areas, and so are not accessible from across the border even if their programs were to expand. Any response to the needs of the majority of the displaced would have to be the responsibility of Burma-based organizations."
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