Risk of future displacement

Average expected number of displacements per year – for sudden-onset hazards:

IDMC uses information about the probability of future hazard scenarios to model displacement risk based on probable housing destruction. Find out how we calculate our metrics here and explore the likelihood of future displacement around the world here.

Latest Figure Analysis for Conflict and Violence

IDMC’s estimate of the total number of IDPs in Burundi is based primarily on its analysis of data obtained from IOM. Most of the IDPs are people who fled political violence in 2015, although the threat of political violence has continued to generate displacement in subsequent years, including in 2018. IDMC’s estimate of the total number of IDPs also includes refugees who returned from Tanzania in 2018 and became displaced upon their return.

IDMC’s estimate of the number of new displacements in 2018 is based on an analysis of net increases in IOM’s monthly figures, as well as an analysis of specific events that caused displacement in 2018.

As security improved, the total number of people living in displacement as a result of conflict as reported by IOM decreased by about 25,000 between 2017 and 2018. IDMC characterises this change as an unverified solution in the absence of further information about the situation.

Download figure analysis for 2018 (PDF, 261 KB)

Download figure analysis for 2017 (PDF, 346 KB)

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