Disaster Risk Model


Every year, floods, storms, earthquakes and other natural hazards force millions of people to abandon their homes – more than conflict and other forms of violence.

Disaster Displacement

Two-thirds of all new internal displacements in 2018, or 17.2 million, were associated with disasters, mostly storms and floods. Losing everything is usually the first of many disruptions: people may be forced to move multiple times once they become displaced, and it can be months or even years before they can return home. Those who do return often  face unsafe conditions and the prospect of becoming displaced again by the next disaster.

Displacement Risk

Disaster risk

IDMC uses information about recorded and forecast hazards to model the risk of future displacement. We calculate how many people will be forced to flee damaged or destroyed homes in a given location each year, decade or century. And we can use our model to estimate how many people will become displaced due to a specific event, like cyclone Idai which hit Mozambique in April. This information can serve two important goals: preventing future displacement and supporting life-saving early warning systems and pre-emptive evacuations.

Explore the likelihood of future displacement around the world


Why use the disaster displacement risk model?

  1. To prepare for, and respond to, disaster-related displacement
  2. To prevent future displacement and reduce its impacts on people and communities
  3. To achieve durable peace and security and strengthen global governance