20 May 2021


Virtual event

Anticipating Climate Change and Disaster Displacement: A Conversation between Practice, Academia and Advocacy

Lunch Lecture Series of the IFHV Research Cluster "Violent Disruptions and Forced Migration"
Panel II: Anticipating Climate-Induced Displacement: Trends and Prediction Models
Thursday 20 May 2021 | 12:00-13.30 Geneva time
Register here


Climate disasters and extreme weather conditions along with the secondary effects of climate change like food insecurity and violent conflicts are expected to raise the numbers of migrants significantly over the course of the upcoming decades.

The Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict’s (IFHV) Research Cluster on “Violent Disruptions and Forced Migration” invites you to discuss the challenges related to the anticipation of climate change and disaster displacement within our upcoming Lunch Lecture Series.

In three consecutive events, leading experts will discuss the legal aspects, humanitarian impacts and current forecasting models with the aim of identifying possible strategies to anticipate and address the challenges of climate-induced displacement. Interested academics, practitioners or students are invited to join the dialogue.

Panel II: Anticipating Climate-Induced Displacement: Trends and Prediction Models

The availability of reliable data is an important pre-requisite for adequate anticipatory action and early responses. However, to date, humanitarian organisations are encountering serious data gaps and the question if forecasting of refugee movements is (already) possible or not is highly contested. This panel focuses on the data basis of anticipatory humanitarian action, taking into account longer term trends as well as short term prediction models.


  • Kanta K. Rigaud, World Bank Group
  • Pablo Ferrández, IDMC
  • Alexander Kjaerum, Danish Refugee Council
  • Diana Suleimanova, Brunei University London

Find more information on the other panels here