The first estimates of the economic impact of internal displacement on sub-Saharan African countries have been unveiled today in a new report by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC).

The financial impact for the region is estimated at $4 billion a year. At the national level, the average annual losses vary from $21 million in the Republic of the Congo, to $755 million in Sudan - a significant burden for already struggling economies. The figure for the Central African Republic, $230 million, represents 11 per cent of the country’s pre-crisis GDP.

Sub-Saharan Africa has been more heavily affected by internal displacement associated with conflict and violence than any other region in the world over the past decade. It accounted for nearly 70 per cent of the global total, or 7.5 million displacements, in 2018. The region also suffered record-breaking levels of displacement linked to drought and floods in 2018, with 2.6 million recorded.

“The devastating impacts of this on people’s safety and wellbeing are already clear; but what we are only just beginning to understand are the long-term economic consequences for individuals, host communities, governments and societies as a whole,” said IDMC’s director, Alexandra Bilak.

Researchers measured the costs and losses of the most direct consequences of internal displacement on health, shelter, education, security and livelihoods. This methodology was applied to 13 sub-Saharan African countries which have recently suffered displacement as a result of conflict, violence, or disasters, and for which data was available.

Boko Haram’s 10-year insurgency in Nigeria has led to unprecedented displacement in the north-east of the country, with an average annual cost estimated at $462 million. Displacement in both Ethiopia and Somalia during the research period was also linked with climate-related hazards, such as drought and floods, which had a significant impact on livelihoods and food security. High levels of projected displacement and limited fiscal resources mean countries in the Sahel and eastern Africa are the least likely to be able to cope with the costs and losses associated with displacement in the coming years.

“This research highlights the far-reaching consequences of forced displacement on future generations. We must stop thinking of internal displacement solely as a humanitarian issue, and build prevention and response into national development plans,” said Alexandra Bilak.

IDMC first published estimates on the annual economic costs of internal displacement at the global level in February 2019. Based on data from eight countries located in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Europe which had recently suffered significant displacement crises, it put the global figure at $13 billion. In both reports, estimates do not account for long-term or indirect consequences of internal displacement, nor the impact on host communities, so they should be considered underestimates.

NOTES TO EDITORS:

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) is the world's authoritative source of data and analysis on internal displacement. Since its establishment in 1998, as part of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), IDMC has offered a rigorous, independent and trusted service to the international community. Our work informs policy and operational decisions that improve the lives of the millions of people living in internal displacement, or at risk of becoming displaced in the future.

Download the report here: Unveiling the cost of internal displacement in Africa 

For interviews please contact:

Frankie Parrish, IDMC
Email: frankie.parrish@idmc.ch 
Office: + 41 22 552 36 45
Mobile: +41 78 630 16 78

Follow IDMC on social media:

Facebook: www.facebook.com/InternalDisplacement  
Twitter: @IDMC_Geneva

Geneva, 4 December 2019 - IDMC Director Alexandra Bilak, newly appointed as a member of the Expert Advisory Group to the UN High-Level Panel on Internal Displacement, said today:

“I am honoured and delighted to be asked to serve – on behalf of the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre and on behalf of the world’s tens of millions of IDPs – in support of Secretary-General Guterres’ panel. He has assembled a remarkable, diverse and experienced team, and I hope that the Advisory Group can be a real support to them. 

“IDMC is the world’s authoritative source of data, analysis and advice on internal displacement, and increasingly works to support governments as they strengthen their response to their internal displacement challenges. Our annual Global Report on Internal Displacement is only the foundation stone of the work that we all need to do – governments, agencies, and communities – to strengthen our knowledge, understanding and capacity.  

“Three months ago at a Wilton Park seminar on internal displacement, I was asked about my hopes for the panel, and said: ‘I would like the High Level Panel to create a space that is as inclusive as possible, for governments to showcase the actions they are taking to prevent and respond to internal displacement.’

“So the next decade needs to focus on sharing and implementing our collective best practice.

“Thank you Secretary-General Guterres: I am much looking forward to starting work on this exciting initiative to help solve one of the most pressing – and often overlooked – challenges of our time.”

NOTES TO EDITORS

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) is the world's authoritative source of data and analysis on internal displacement. Since its establishment in 1998, as part of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), IDMC has offered a rigorous, independent and trusted service to the international community. Our work informs policy and operational decisions that improve the lives of the millions of people living in internal displacement, or at risk of becoming displaced in the future. 

For interviews, please contact:

John Phillips, Strategic Communications Adviser

Email: John.Phillips@idmc.ch  

Mobile: +41 79 217 3376 

Geneva 3 December 2019 – As world leaders meet in Madrid this week at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP25), newly published analysis estimates that, by the end of the century, up to 50 million people per year could be at risk of displacement triggered by floods.  

Disasters caused by natural hazards displaced 17.2 million people in 2018, and 7 million in the first half of 2019, with Cyclone Fani driving 3.4 million from their homes in May in India and Bangladesh alone. A small proportion of these hazards are geophysical events, such as earthquakes and volcanoes, but nearly 90 per cent of all disaster displacements are weather or climate-related. Floods are responsible for most displacement, triggering over half, followed by storms.

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) now estimates that - in a best-case scenario - the risk of displacement associated with floods could at least double, to around 20 million people by 2099. In a worst-case scenario, it says, the risk could increase five-fold.  

“Climate displacement poses a huge global challenge. People are being forced from their homes around the world by cyclones, floods, drought and wildfires. We expect even more extreme weather in the future, so it’s imperative that we understand the magnitude of future risk, what’s driving it, and what we can do about it,” said Justin Ginnetti, IDMC’s Head of Data and Analysis.

IDMC undertook this analysis in partnership with leading experts from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH) and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). The extent of future flooding was estimated by transforming future precipitation from global climate models into estimated flood depth using hydrological models.

The report shows that the impacts of climate change, such as an increase in global temperatures, will increase both the frequency and intensity of floods. Population growth around the world will further amplify the risk of future displacement. Low income and developing countries will be disproportionately affected. Sub-Saharan Africa, South-East Asia, Oceania and Latin America are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, and have the highest concentration of people exposed to floods. These regions are also expected to have the highest rate of population growth and urbanisation this century.

Flooding and landslides destroyed hundreds of homes in Freetown, the capital of Sierra Leone, in August 2019. Informal and unregulated urban sprawl and deforestation on the slopes surrounding the city had created additional risk. Unusually heavy rains linked to El Niño triggered nearly 380,000 displacements in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay in the first months of the year. Deforestation and the construction of hydroelectric dams may have contributed to the severity of flooding.

“Our analysis indicates that, even if governments successfully implement the Paris Agreement to combat climate change and adapt to its effects, flood displacement risk is still likely to double by the end of the 21^st Century,” said Justin Ginnetti.

“Urban development planning will be key in shaping future risk, and governments must also invest in life-saving early-action, such as pre-emptive evacuations.”

NOTES TO EDITORS

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) is the world's authoritative source of data and analysis on internal displacement. Since its establishment in 1998, as part of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), IDMC has offered a rigorous, independent and trusted service to the international community. Our work informs policy and operational decisions that improve the lives of the millions of people living in internal displacement, or at risk of becoming displaced in the future. 

View and download the report ‘A Crisis Foretold: Assessing the impacts of climate change on flood displacement risk’ here.

This analysis is a first attempt to analyse the increases in climate-related displacement risk associated with one hazard: floods. Further analysis for storms and other hazards will follow in 2020.

For interviews please contact: 

Frankie Parrish, IDMC 

Email: frankie.parrish@idmc.ch     

Office: + 41 22 552 36 45 

Mobile: +41 78 630 16 78

Follow IDMC on social media: 

Facebook: www.facebook.com/InternalDisplacement

Twitter: @IDMC_Geneva